Tropical Storm Alex

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt...39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.


These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory package for all active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. While separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.

Additionally, these probability products are available on the National Weather Service's National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) graphical tropical webpage.

The previously provided strike probability product (discontinued after 2005) conveyed the chances of a "close" approach of the center of the cyclone. However, these new probability products are about the weather. That is, these cumulative wind speed probabilities provide the chances that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur at individual locations. The cumulative probabilities can answer the question, "What are the chances that sustained winds of tropical storm or hurricane force will occur at any specific location?" This can also help one answer the question, "Do I need to take certain actions to prepare?" A companion product, the wind speed probability text product, will also be issued and updated with each advisory package. That product is recommended to more easily assess when winds of each threshold are most likely to start at any specific location, helping to answer the question, "How long do I have to prepare?" Overall, these probabilities provide users with information that can enhance their ability to make preparedness decisions specific to their own situations.

It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively small at their location might still be quite significant, since they indicate that there is a chance that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect lives and property.

Tropical Depression #1 Forms

The first tropical depression of the 2010 season has formed.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time.

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

There is also uncertainty in the NHC intensity forecasts. The Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability Table provides intensity forecast and uncertainty information.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, the chances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force), 50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented in tabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented in graphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt, and 64 kt thresholds.

Hurricane Ike - A Mighty Storm

Reasoning With Hurricane Season

June ETMA Meeting

Remember East Texas Mutual Aid Association meeting Thursday night (June 17) at 7 PM. The meeting will be hosted by Kirbyville Fire Department and be helld at the JNEC building (812 South Margaret St.) in Kirbyville

DPS Director Appoints Interim Chief of Emergency Management

Friday, June 11, 2010 0

San Antonio District Fire Chief W. Nim Kidd has been named as the interim chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management starting July 1, 2010. Chief Kidd replaces Jack Colley, who suffered a fatal heart attack last month.

Kidd’s appointment was made by Steven C. McCraw, director of the Texas Department of Public Safety, with the concurrence of Governor Rick Perry and Allan Polunsky, chairman of the Texas Public Safety Commission.

“Jack Colley was a national icon in emergency management, a man whose invaluable service saved countless lives in Texas and established a legacy of competence that will be felt for years to come,” Director McCraw said. “As we enter the 2010 Hurricane Season, we are fortunate to welcome Chief Kidd, an experienced leader in handling disasters in our state, whose skills and dedication will keep Texas a national leader in emergency preparedness and management.”

Chief Kidd is currently San Antonio’s Homeland Security Director, managing the Homeland Security Grant Program, and is chair of the Urban Area Security Initiative Working Group. Kidd has also served as the city’s Emergency Manager since 2004, managing the city’s preparedness, response and recovery efforts for all local disasters, including more than a dozen substantial disasters impacting the community.

Kidd has worked with the San Antonio Fire Department (SAFD) since 1993, holding the rank of firefighter, fire apparatus operator, lieutenant, captain, and District Fire Chief. He has led the SAFD Technical Rescue Team and the Hazardous Material Response Team.

Additionally, Kidd has served as a member of Texas Task Force 1 Urban Search and Rescue Team since 1997, responding to state and national disasters including the World Trade Center attack in September 2001. Chief Kidd holds the Certified Emergency Manager designation from the International Association of Emergency Managers and has served as a member of the Board of Directors of the Emergency Management Association of Texas. Chief Kidd currently serves on the Governor’s Emergency Medical Services and Trauma Advisory Council-Disaster Committee, and the Governor’s Texas Preparedness Advisory Council for the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

DPS troopers checking 18-wheeler safety June 8-10

During RoadCheck 2010, law enforcement agencies across the United States, Mexico and Canada will be checking commercial motor vehicles such as 18-wheelers. The 72-hour intensive inspection program runs from June 8 through 10 throughout North America.

DPS Commercial Vehicle Enforcement troopers and noncommissioned inspectors, along with Highway Patrol troopers who have received specialized training in commercial vehicle inspection, will stop thousands of commercial vehicles to inspect safety equipment and check driver log books, driver licenses and endorsements. Inspectors will also look for possible drug or alcohol use.

“We want to emphasize to all commercial vehicle operators traveling through Texas that safety is our foremost concern. We’ll be looking for trucks and drivers who aren’t complying with safety requirements, and we’ll place them out of service if necessary,” said David Baker, the assistant director who oversees the Texas Highway Patrol.

During Roadcheck 2009, DPS inspectors examined 7,316 vehicles in Texas. As a result, troopers removed 1,636 vehicles and 202 drivers from service because of the serious nature of their safety violations. Inspectors placed 125 drivers out of service for hours-of-service violations. Other violations ranged from false log violations, having the improper endorsement to suspended, expired and cancelled licenses. Seven drivers were placed out of service for drug or alcohol violations. Troopers issued 12 tickets for seat belt violations.

The Roadcheck program, which stretches from Mexico to Canada, is designed to reduce commercial vehicle highway fatalities through increased vehicle safety. The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance (CVSA), which sponsors Roadcheck, reports a significant decrease in the commercial vehicle crash rate in North America since the program’s start in 1988.

Vehicles passing inspection receive a CVSA decal exempting the vehicle from inspection for a 90-day period, unless they have an obvious safety defect. DPS troopers issued 3,037 decals during Roadcheck 2009.

USA, TX, TEXAS CITY, MAY 6 2010. BP: 500,000 POUNDS OF EMISSIONS RELEASED

 At BP’s Texas City refinery, more than 400 pounds a day of benzene — 40 times the state reportable levels — was released during a 40-day period while a subunit of the refinery’s ultracracker unit was offline, according to a company filing with the state’s environmental agency Friday. In all, BP officials said more than 500,000 pounds of pollutants and nonpollutants were released while the company increased flaring as they tried to repair a compressor on the faulty unit. Refinery spokesman Michael Marr said in its follow up reporting with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, BP estimated 36,000 pounds of nitrogen oxides and 17,000 pounds of benzene were released in the 40 days. State law requires 10 pounds or more of benzene and 200 pounds or more of nitrogen oxide during a 24-hour period must be reported through the commission’s air emissions database. Benzene is a carcinogen naturally found in oil that has been linked to some forms of cancer, according to U.S. Health and Human Services records. Nitrogen oxides react to sunlight to form ozone and can damage lung tissue and cause respiratory problems. However, neither of the levels of the emissions reached levels that required self-reporting to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Marr said. The EPA requires any nitrogen oxides release of more than 1,000 pounds a day be reported, while the federal agency does not require reports of benzene emissions. According to BP’s filing with the TCEQ, the ultracracker’s hydrogen compressor went offline April 6 and was not repaired or restarted until May 16. Because of the malfunction, the subunit was shut down, and materials were purged and gasses were rerouted to a flare, according to the company’s filing. The ultracracker, which remained operable, can process 65,000 barrels of oil per day and mostly produces high-octane blending components for gasoline. The ultracracker also can produce ethane, propane, butane, pentane, hexane and distillate. The bulk of the emissions during that time included an estimated 189,000 pounds of carbon monoxide and 61,000 pounds of propane, according to the company’s report to the TCEQ. “During this time period, the site’s fenceline monitoring did not indicate any excess readings,” Marr said. “Also of note, the site performed modeling of the emissions using TCEQ-approved modeling methods, and that modeling did not indicate an exceedance of regulatory exposure limits to workers or the community at any time during the flaring.” TCEQ spokeswoman Andrea Morrow said the filing starts a process that includes a review by the agency that could end up before the commission’s enforcement division. She said depending on why and what caused the emissions, the agency could take enforcement action. But without knowing the specifics of the BP emissions, she could not comment on what action the agency could or would take. She did caution the figures BP included in its report likely were estimates that will be higher than what actually was released. She said companies that underreport emissions face penalties. So the companies often will “shoot high,” Morrow said. According to BP’s TCEQ filing, all of the figures were estimates.

Benzene Emissions

According to a 2008 report by the Environmental Integrity Project, BP’s Texas City refinery was among four refineries in the nation that had the largest increases in benzene emissions even as overall benzene emissions among U.S. refiners decreased by more than 18 percent between 2000 and 2008. The environmental group claims refiners actually underreport how much of the carcinogen is released because of inadequate EPA standards. However, according to a report to the Texas City-La Marque Community Advisory Council by the Galveston County Health District’s director of Environmental Health last summer, benzene emissions in Texas City decreased by 74 percent between 1993 and 2008. That report does not single out BP nor attribute how much each of the city’s chemical plants or refineries reduced benzene emissions.

Source: Environmental Integrity Project, Texas City-La Marque Community Advisory Council

Subject: Revised Hurricane Response Plan Emergency

The following announces  the recent revision to the State of Texas Hurricane Response Plan, dated April 30, 2010, and request your assistance in distributing the information. The revised documents are located on the TDEM website:

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/pages/downloadableforms.htm#hurrevac.

Summary of Changes

- The document was renamed Hurricane Response Plan to more accurately reflect the operational construct of the plan.

- The basic plan was revised to include revisions to the hurricane response organization, protocols, and operations.

- It incorporates and/or partially incorporates recent legislative changes to Government Code, Chapter 418. The TDEM Plans Unit continues to revise other state planning documents to fully incorporate these requirements. Changes to this plan include:

o Legal authorities granted to the Governor and Emergency Management Directors during a Mandatory Evacuation.

o DEM name change to TDEM.

o Provisions to replenish food supplies of food banks or pantries.

o Provides for the initial response after a disaster, reentry, and transition to the program of recovery.

o Better incorporates the integration of volunteer groups into emergency plans and encourages the public to participate in volunteer emergency teams that respond to disasters.

o Defines individuals with special needs.

o Enhanced medical special needs categories, requirements for medical special needs and minimum health-related standards for shelters operated with state funds. These requirements will be further developed during the revisions of State Annex H, Health and Medical, and Annex C, Shelter and Mass Care.

o Establishes a phased reentry plan that accommodates local plans and local official preferences with respect to reentry.

o Addresses license portability, post disaster evaluations and seizure of State or federal resource restrictions.

- The Disaster District Traffic Management Plans were revised and include the new district area identifiers.

- The Plan includes new attachments addressing the Special Needs Tracking System, Reentry Task Forces, Reentry Plan, Commodity Distribution Plan, and Fuel Operations Plan.

Hurricane Season 2010 begins today.

Once again, we have reached June 1st, and it is unfortunately the start of yet another Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The patterns, water temperatures, and lack of el Nino this year will likely increase the chances of an active year.
 
Time is now to begin to prepare!